The Ravens Nest

Speculation on Wizards of The Coast’s Next Move

This morning, as I was brushing my teeth, I’d come across Indestructoboy’s Video regarding some speculation that DM’s Guild was in the crosshairs of Wizards of The Coast.

Let me nutshell the argument. WoTC have been doing nothing short of shooting themselves in the foot. I’ve listed their transgressions in a previous article. With so much bad press, so many more customers lost, some of whom will not be going back, myself included, a movie that has not done as well as it could have, it didn’t bother waiting to go to streaming/VoD services, their most recent books haven’t sold as well as they could have even though the normies are still buying. They’ve spent more money than they’ve made, Hasbro, WoTC’s parent company is having doubts and yeah, things just aren’t exactly sunshine and rainbows for our coastal would-be magic users who’ve fucked their alignment nine ways to sundown.

In short, they need a quick infusion of money and fast. Pissing off fans before the release of the movie with a backdoor move that got leaked and then attempting to merely soften it only to completely backpedal didn’t work for some reason. In WoTC’s place, that D&D Beyond Virtual Tabletop (VTT) which didn’t go over well at the trade show they put on for select influencers didn’t seem to go as well as they’d hoped either. Then they sent armed thugs after a YouTuber and it just seems like WoTC just can’t stop the compulsive bad behavior but the theory is this. WoTC, owning D&D Beyond and needing a digital marketplace would either approach Roll20 Inc (who effectively owns OneBookShelf who’s business model is basically DriveThruRPG AND DM’s Guild) and wants to completely renegotiate the terms of the deal with Roll20 Inc. The end result whether they renegotiate or not is the same. They’ll simply take the 20% licensing fee from those who produce for D&D (what will effectively be) 5.5th Edition (The Digital Variety on D&D Beyond) and cut the author in on a much larger percentage.

In essence, it’s kind of a win-win all around. Win for WoTC because they’ll be seen as the better company to work for, freelance. When you can keep 80% of your money by writing stuff for official Dragonlance, then WoTC barely needs to lift a finger and, of course, WoTC makes money from the players over the web, provided they have Alienware computers to run the high-end graphics needed. The eventuality is such that there isn’t a soul on this planet currently writing stuff for official D&D that wouldn’t take that deal and eventually, DM’s Guild will starve out and possibly go under, having held out as long as they could, barring deals with other companies take the place of WoTC and prove more mutually beneficial. The result would be that eventually, WoTC would claim that OneBookShelf/Roll20 Inc would not be making them any money, thus partnership dissolved and then WoTC would hold sway over the entirety of the digital space and be grasping the near-monopoly that DriveThruRPG and DM’s Guild once held. The best part is that this can all be done quietly, practically without any one of us knowing a thing until it’s too late.

I wouldn’t blame writers for taking the deal. I wouldn’t blame WoTC for making at least one smart business decision in their lives, however, I would caution writers to watch the agreements because that 20% can go up very quickly. WoTC’s entire aim is to kill off their competition. That was clear from the start of the OGL Coup they attempted at the beginning of this year.

A larger market share will, unfortunately, roll right on over the D&D Beyond and be under the whims of WoTC. That alone is scary but let’s take something else into consideration.

Roll20 Inc/OneBookShelf will experience a huge chunk of their revenue and profit gone in nearly an instant. Anyone with exclusivity deals will also experience and feel that loss in a big way. Sites like Big Geek Emporium won’t even take notice. Can’t lose what you never had.

Centralization may just work against Roll20 Inc/OneBookShelf. Coupled with the hubris that have come with expelling independent artists and publishing houses such as The Red Room, from a business perspective, this would become a nightmare scenario for Roll20 Inc.

Granted, this is all speculation but what Indestructoboy proposes isn’t exactly a stretch, given WoTC’s desperate attempts to scramble to hold what they have that they’re practically twirling moustaches in those offices at the executive level.

The biggest takeaway from all of this is that, if the internet has taught us anything, company loyalty does not in any way mean a thing anymore. Companies, the larger they get will throw you away at the first sign of anything resembling trouble and they honestly believe that they’re insulated. In many cases, our own paths to redemption don’t matter either, being taken as weakness at times.

Personally, I’m still unwilling to purchase anything from DriveThruRPG or anyone associated with them. Likewise, I’m also unwilling to continue purchasing from WoTC until their terrible behavior is fully reversed and never repeated. Some of you creators with exclusivity deals, this is the point where I warn you again to back out of them now because the danger is clear that should the centralization become the weak point for everyone involved, you’ll need off-ramps as well.

Again, it’s all speculation, however, though I invite DriveThruRPG, DM’s Guild, Roll20 Inc, and even Wizards of The Coast to comment in response, I won’t hold my breath.

Author’s Note: This content will always be 100% Free to you. There are no plans to monetize it ever. If you really want to contribute, simply comment, subscribe and share these posts with friends. If you feel like I’ve earned that something extra, hit any of the wish lists (There are only two) in the link tree below and you can send a gift. If you send something, please be sure to include your name so I can personally thank you. If you don’t, then simply feel free to enjoy the content with my deepest appreciation for your visit. Thank You.